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Not a prediction. A probability.

A three-model ensemble (logistic regression, random forest, XGBoost) trained on 22,714 games of Statcast-era data that generates pre-game win probabilities benchmarked directly against Kalshi prediction market prices. Each model is isotonically calibrated and evaluated on Brier score, enabling an apples-to-apples comparison against market-implied probabilities to surface where the models agree, disagree, and where systematic edges may exist.